Gaming Nuclear Escalation

Gaming Nuclear Escalation

We hear a lot today about the fear of the Ukraine war becoming a nuclear war.    For most of us, this is a vague concept which usually results in us believing this means the end of the world very quickly.  I thought it would be useful to apply some game theory to understand the most probable course nuclear escalation might take.

 

There are three types of nuclear weapons.  These are:  battlefield tactical nukes (BTN), Intermediate range nuclear missiles (IR) for short, and ICBMs, which we all know stands for intercontinental ballistic missiles.  I will include nuclear weapons launched from submarines in the ICBM category.

 

The First Escalation – BTNs Advantage Putin

The most likely first step of a nuclear escalation scenario is the use of BTNs.  These have limited range but can also cause contamination of the soil and of the local water supply, not to mention the atmosphere.  All of these can last for decades.    These would be limited to the theatre of war, which is at the time of writing, limited to Ukraine.  This will present the allies with two problems.

First, how do we retaliate?  In order to retaliate with BTNs of our own, we would need to provide them to Ukrainian forces and train them.  Provision might be possible while training would be difficult and time consuming.  The only other option we have is to use them ourselves which means sending ground troops in.  This leads to a direct confrontation with Russia, which is what the allies are trying to avoid now.  Therefore, we would almost certainly be unable to retaliate in kind.

But even if we did figure out a way to use BTNs on Russian troops ourselves against Russian forces, these would be limited to the theatre of war and serve only to cause further nuclear devastation to our friend Ukraine. 

The most likely outcome of this escalation is that Putin takes Ukraine and avoids an Afghanistan situation because Ukraine would have no realistic way to engage in gorilla warfare without doing serious damage to their own homeland.

The Second Escalation – IRs Advantage Putin

IRs would allow Putin to strike other countries, some of whom may be part of NATO while some might not.  There is almost a 100% probability he would strike a nonnuclear nation with IRs rather than the United States, Brittan, France, or any other nuclear power in Europe.  NATO would be forced to invoke Article 5, but would we?  The problem we face in this scenario is that although we have IRs, we have only two options.  We could attack Russian forces in the theatre of war, or we could strike Belarus.  We cannot attack the Russian homeland because that would trigger Armageddon.  This means that for all practical purposes, we would attack the theatre of war, which under this scenario now includes Ukraine, and any other country struck.  This would do catastrophic environmental damage to our allies while leaving Russia and the nuclear powers untouched.  The only realistic escalation from here to Armageddon when ICBMs come into the picture.

The most likely outcome in this scenario is a peace treaty with Putin in which Putin gets much of what he wants even some NATO nations.  Again, advantage Putin.  Putin wins this scenario just as he wins the first scenario.

Armageddon – ICBMS Advantage no one

Here I use Armageddon in the common sense referring to World War III.  As a student of Bible prophecy, I do not believe the actual Armageddon prophesied refers to this.  It is obvious that no one wins Armageddon so I will not belabor that point here. 

My Conclusion

Since Putin wins the first two escalation scenarios, the only realistic way to prevent escalation is to do the following.

1.       Go into Ukraine

2.       Deploy IRs in Western Ukraine and other NATO countries ASAP.  I will assume here we obtain Ukraine’s permission.

The most likely outcome, by a long shot is these actions will force Putin to withdraw and he can do so in a face-saving manner because he can tell his people he does not wish a nuclear war.  He can even tell them his prophecy of IRs pointed at Russia has come to pass.  But who cares what he says?  The effect of this action will be to end the war in Ukraine.  There is a risk of escalation but since the most likely outcome is Armageddon, Putin will not escalate.  The principles of Mutually Assure Destruction (MAD) which have served us so well is the most likely outcome.    The key here is to get the IRs and BTNs in quickly before Russia can.  This will force Putin to withdraw from Ukraine and eliminate the theatre of war.  The window to do this is closing.  We should take these actions now.

It is also worth remembering that one of Putin’s main justifications for his invasion was his fear that Ukraine would join NATO and that IRs would be deployed there and in other NATO nations.  Putin has clearly done some gaming of his own and deduced that IRs are his gravest threat.  People might despise Putin, but when it comes to gaming and strategy, he should certainly be respected.

 

Note:

The first escalation BTNs also applies to chemical weapons.