AIDS, COVID-19, Hydroxychloroquine and AZT

When AIDS broke into Western consciousness in the early 80’s, people were desperate for a treatment because there was neither a treatment or a cure.  One drug, AZT showed early signs of promise and there was a desperate frenzy to get AZT into the hands of patients with HIV.  When the dust settled, the data showed that in many cases, AZT on its own did more harm than good, killing afflicted patients faster than if they had not taken AZT.  A number of HIV sufferers opted not to take it.  It wasn’t until about a decade or so later that the current treatment for AIDS was developed which consists of AZT in combination with a few other medications.  After nearly 40 years, we still do not have a vaccine for AIDS.  This should be a lesson for us during COVID-19. 

1) Hydroxychloroquine on its own may do more harm than good.  The French study often sited by those who think it is a wonder drug for COVID-19 is almost universally condemned by experts as a poor excuse for a clinical study.  In other words, Hydroxychloroquine may be to COVID-19 what AZT was to AIDS.

2) There is no guarantee we will develop a vaccine for COVID-19.  Given scientists have developed vaccines for other coronaviruses I would say the chances are good, but it is by no means guaranteed.  We must therefore entertain the possibility that society will have to proceed without a vaccine for a disease which is far more contagious than AIDS. 

3) It may take a long time before scientists develop an effective treatment for COVID-19 just as it took about a decade to develop an effective treatment for AIDS.

We are all desperate for life to get back to some semblance of normality.  But we must temper our desperation with the dismal possibility that normal may not return for some time.  Let us not rush into mistakes.  I hope world leaders think very carefully before they act.  Everything we do from now on, at least in the short term, is a calculated risk.  I hope we consider all possibilities and contingencies to minimize the chances of acting rashly.