Syria and Iraq Explained

In order to determine a solution for Syria and Islamic State, we need to first understand what is happening there and why.  The Middle East has three factors which make it such a hot spot.  In no particular order, these factors are:

·         Oil

·         Israel

·         Two rival Islamic sects which have been fighting each other since Muhammad died in 632.

Everyone knows there is a large amount of oil in the Middle East but what few know is how that relates to the current situation.  In a nutshell, there is a war going on in the Middle East between the Shia and Sunni sects of Islam.  For the purposes of this discussion, you can think of these rival sects as North Islam and South Islam, at least in the region.  Syria represents the southern border of Shia influence.  Without Saddam Hussein in charge in Iraq, what you have in the Shia camp is most of Iraq, Iran and Syria.  Meanwhile in the Sunni camp you have Saudi Arabia and the UAE.  Both sides have oil.  Both sides want to get that oil to Europe and both sides need a pipeline to get that oil there.  The problem is this.  Both sides need Syria for their pipelines.  Geographically speaking, Syria is important. 

North Islam, or the Shia school, want a pipeline traversing Iran, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon and from there to Europe.  Meanwhile Southern Islam want a pipeline to traverse Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Iraq and Turkey before going into Europe.  I should point out that although Turkey is in the north, it is a secular state and probably more aligned to Sunni Islam than it is to Shia Islam though both are present there.  So my North-South simplification is not perfect.  Thus, Syria and Iraq are stuck in the middle.  Both sides want those territories for the same reason.  But of course, pipelines are not the only means by which oil can be transported.  The waters off the shores of Syria hold much promise of oil, though Syria itself is fairly oil poor compared to other countries of the Middle East.  When you factor in the ocean, then control of a shorter water route to Europe is also a factor.

When Saddam Hussein ruled Iraq, he instituted a strong secular socialist state which, in theory at least, embraced everyone.  In reality, the minority Sunni Muslims in Iraq held more power, but Saddam was strong enough to keep Shia factions under check.  He also fought Iran, a completely Shia stronghold.  He occupied Kuwait (Sunni) precipitating the first Gulf War for two reasons.  First, it was a rival in terms of oil, but second and more important, Saddam felt Kuwait traditionally belonged to Iraq and he wanted it back.  That it is rich in oil was also a contributing factor. 

Because oil is so important, stronger powers also weigh in.  North Islam is supported by Russia and China while South Islam is supported by the United States and Israel.  Israel, of course, cannot directly support anyone there because that would spell the doom of whomever they support.  Despite appearances on the surface, Israel is more akin to Saudi Arabia’s leadership than you might think.  This is something Bin-Laden hated and recognized. 

Back during the cold war, the United States was a massive importer of oil and was dependent on the Middle East to keep the country going.  With shale oil, though, the game has changed.  The USA no longer needs Middle East oil as it once did.  But if China and Russia have their way in this region, their economic wealth will dramatically increase thereby weakening the United States.  So the United States does not want either of these rival powers to hold sway in the region.

Thus it is that Russia and China are allied with Bashar Al-Assad, the president of Syria, as well as with Iran.  Meanwhile the USA is allied with Saudi Arabia and the UAE.  We can throw Kuwait in as well.  In a nutshell, then, the United States is fighting a proxy war with Russia and China using Middle Eastern countries as pawns.  But of course, these pawns are extremely wealthy in their own right.

Saudi Arabia has two major problems.  One is its hostility to Shia Islam and the countries dominated by that sect.  The second problem it has is shale oil.  In the United States, extraction and refinement of shale oil is well advanced because the United States has the technology in place.  This is not so in other countries.  Were this to become so in other countries, demand for conventionally extracted oil would decrease.  This is why Saudi Arabia has dramatically increased production of oil leading to a massive fall in the oil price.

You might think the USA would be against this because shale oil costs more to produce.  A lower oil price means companies involved in shale oil make far less money because their profit margins shrink dramatically.  But the USA needs to balance this inconvenience against two factors.

·         A lower oil price stimulates the domestic economy in ways that are obvious.  Transport costs are down as well as manufacturing costs.  A lower oil price has been a large contributing factor in the US recovery.

·         A lower oil price means Russia and Iran make less money.  Russia is an oil exporter, and a lower oil price means less revenue from oil. 

Meanwhile Europe is oil poor.  It therefore needs oil.  Europeans are smart enough to realize they don’t want their oil to come from only one country.  Yes, they could get oil from Russia easily enough, but then they would need to dance on Russian strings.  And this is Ukraine in a nutshell.  Ukraine gets its oil from Russia pretty much exclusively.  If Russia doesn’t like something Ukraine is doing, they turn off the flow.  It gets really cold in the winter there and Russia holds all the cards.  Europe does not want this so they are keen to obtain oil from multiple sources.

Russia knows this as well as anyone.  While other sources of oil would weaken them economically, if they had control and influence over those other sources, then that negative factor would be removed and indeed reversed.

Russia has exploration deals off the shores of Syria.  If they find oil there, and the consensus is they will, this will prove very lucrative to Russian companies and to Russia itself.  This will also gain them more control and influence in the region.

So I think when you look at all of these factors, it is easy to see why Syria is so important and why so much energy is expended by everyone worrying about it.  At present, the United States is in a weak position because Russia’s ally, Bashar Al-Assad holds power.  Rebels against him include Islamic State which no one likes.

Originally, the US thought their policy with respect to Syria was a simple one.  Support the rebels against Assad.  That one rebel faction consisted of ultra-fanatics, came as a surprise, though I suppose it is possible the USA knew this, then underestimated their potential.  In fact, the whole Arab Spring consisted of pro-Saudi groups rebelling against their respective governments.  This has largely failed and now we have Islamic State causing so much trouble in the region, that the USA and Russia both want them gone.

The trouble is, if Islamic State disappeared tomorrow, the US position would be even weaker in the region.  This is because their defeat would leave a power vacuum in mostly Shia Iraq.  Islamic State is Sunni.  In an ideal world, for the USA at least, Islamic State would disappear and a separate Kurdish state spanning parts of Iraq and Syria would be created.  Kurds are primarily Sunni and have worked with the United States on a number of occasions for various reasons.  A Kurdish state would be a thorn in Iran’s side and also curb Russian influence.  Of course, the non-Kurds in the region would object because Iran, Iraq, Syria, and Turkey have persecuted the Kurds for centuries.  Another benefit of a Kurdish state would be that Kurds are diverse religiously even though a majority of them are Sunni.  They have always been freer and more tolerant, however, and this would align better with western ideals.

The major barrier to such a state is Turkey.  Turkey is an ally of the United States and Israel, and has been for decades.  Yes, Turkey and Israel have a strong friendship that has lasted for many years.  Turkey would most definitely not want a Kurdish state.  Since Iraq is more or less a vacuum now, however, perhaps this is the best opportunity to create a Kurdish state.  Iraq’s borders are somewhat artificial anyway.  A Kurdish state would be smaller than what the Kurds would like, because Kurds live in Iran and Turkey as well, but at least it would be an independent state.  A Kurdish state with no territory belonging to Turkey could work though people would have to jump through many diplomatic hoops to get it through.  The only downside of such a state is border tension with Iran, turkey, and Syria.  This is a significant downside, but I think the upside is stronger.  A Kurdish state would provide stability.  It would give an often persecuted and butchered people independence, and it would provide a check on Russia, Iran, Syria and China which have the upper hand in the region at present.  Essentially, such a Kurdish state would exist in parts of Iraq which at present are either ruled by them anyway, or are ruled by Islamic State, which no one really wants.

So this is the situation in a nutshell.  In this corner, we have the United States, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait.  In the other corner we have Russia, China, Iran and Syria, with a lot of sympathetic Iraqis.  Syria and Iraq are the strategic center of all this.

Now we understand the situation, we can discuss solutions to that situation.  President Obama’s goals are exactly in line with what the United States wants.  They are also probably only achievable in Disneyland but we should at least realize Obama does want what is in the USA’s best interests.  He wants Assad gone.  He wants Islamic State gone.  He wants a strong Iraqi government which embraces all of its groups in a more or less secular state, and he wants Saudi Arabia to win its “war” against Iran.  Low oil prices plus sanctions because of Ukraine will put the squeeze on Russia.  Indeed, this is already happening.  Meanwhile Russia wants control of Syria for economic reasons, and that means its friends Iran would have influence in Iraq which is mostly Shia just as Iran is.  There is a lot of oil there which means a lot of potential revenue.  This will also make China stronger because it will have friendly sources of oil without US meddling. 

At present, Russia’s ideal state is more realistic than that of the United States because one way to get rid of Islamic State is to support Assad.  Meanwhile the USA needs to find a way to get rid of both, which is much more difficult.    The US could allow Assad to stay in power even though that would be a thorn in its side, but in order to counter this, it would need to create a strong Iraq or a strong Kurdish state.  This would maintain the balance of power.  Realistically, this is the avenue the United States should pursue.  It is the most realistically obtainable solution on the proviso that the US is willing to commit resources to the region yet again, but this time, make sure things are done right there.